烟花爆竹生产企业安全风险动态评价
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Release time:2025-05-10 DOI number:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.03.0761. Journal:中国安全科学学报 Key Words:烟花爆竹;生产企业;安全风险;动态评价;安全生产;系统动力学(SD); Abstract:为降低烟花爆竹生产企业的安全风险，消除现有安全评价机制存在的主观性与静态局限性，基于扎根理论（GT）构建烟花爆竹生产企业安全风险的评价指标体系，应用频数型网络分析法-反向传播神经网络（ANP-BPNN）模型计算评价指标的评价值与权重，运用系统动力学（SD）方法建立烟花爆竹生产企业安全风险水平动态评价模型，并以某烟花爆竹重大爆炸事故涉事企业加以验证。结果表明：烟花爆竹生产企业安全风险动态评价模型能够准确捕捉安全风险的发展趋势，通过持续性的安全风险动态评价，预测安全风险水平达到较大风险状态的时间，弹性调整烟花爆竹生产企业安全风险评价的间隔时间，以确保企业始终保持安全的生产状态。 First Author:王飞跃，王心雨，张文俊，刘辉* Indexed by:Journal paper Discipline:Engineering First-Level Discipline:Safety Science and Engineering Document Type:J Volume:35 Issue:3 Page Number:10-18 Translation or Not:no Date of Publication:2025-03-15 -
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烟花爆竹生产企业安全风险动态评价_王飞跃.pdf
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