WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction model performance in 10 regions, China
- 点击次数：
- 影响因子：13.831
- DOI码：10.2471/BLT.22.288645
- 发表刊物：Bulletin of the World Health Organization
- 关键字：Cardiovascular disease; Risk prediction model
- 摘要：Objective: To validate the World Health Organization (WHO) non-laboratory-based cardiovascular disease risk prediction model in regions of China.
Methods: We performed an external validation of the WHO model for East Asia using the data set of China Kadoorie Biobank, an ongoing cohort study with 512 725 participants recruited from 10 regions of China from 2004-2008. We also recalculated the recalibration parameters for the WHO model in each region and evaluated the predictive performance of the model before and after recalibration. We assessed discrimination performance by Harrell's C index.
Findings: We included 412 225 participants aged 40-79 years. During a median follow-up of 11 years, 58 035 and 41 262 incident cardiovascular disease cases were recorded in women and men, respectively. Harrell's C of the WHO model was 0.682 in women and 0.700 in men but varied among regions. The WHO model underestimated the 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in most regions. After recalibration in each region, discrimination and calibration were both improved in the overall population. Harrell's C increased from 0.674 to 0.749 in women and from 0.698 to 0.753 in men. The ratios of predicted to observed cases before and after recalibration were 0.189 and 1.027 in women and 0.543 and 1.089 in men.
Conclusion: The WHO model for East Asia yielded moderate discrimination for cardiovascular disease in the Chinese population and had limited prediction for cardiovascular disease risk in different regions in China. Recalibration for diverse regions greatly improved discrimination and calibration in the overall population.
- 合写作者：Yinqi Ding, Canqing Yu, Yu Guo, Yuanjie Pang, Dianjianyi Sun, Pei Pei, Ling Yang, Yiping Chen, Huaidong Du, Dan Schmidt, Rebecca Stevens, Derrick Bennett, Robert Clarke, Junshi Chen, Zhengming Chen, Liming Li, China Kadoorie Biobank Collaborative Group
- 第一作者：Songchun Yang
- 论文类型：期刊论文
- 通讯作者：Jun Lv
- 论文编号：PMID: 37008262
- 学科门类：医学
- 一级学科：公共卫生与预防医学
- 文献类型：J
- 卷号：101
- 期号：4
- 页面范围：238-247
- ISSN号：0042-9686
- 是否译文：否
- 发表时间：2023-02-01
- 收录刊物：SCI
- 发布期刊链接：https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10042093/pdf/BLT.22.288645.pdf
